As we enter August and, therefore, the last two months of the major league baseball season, the division races are heating up. The most exciting races currently lie in the AL Central and the NL West, with the White Sox and Giants holding very slim leads over the Tigers and Dodgers, respectively. However, the most intriguing story in baseball resides in the NL East, with the first-place Washington Nationals. The Nats are 65-43 and 3 games up on Atlanta as of Monday, August 6. This is good for the second-best record in baseball. Yes, these
are the Nationals we are speaking of. No, none of that was a typographical error.
The Nationals are poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 1981, the year of the franchise's only other postseason appearance. As a reminder of how long ago this was, I'll mention that in this year the New York Islanders were world champions of hockey, Ronald Reagan was president, Raiders of the Lost Ark was killing in theaters, and AIDS was just being identified. Oh, and the Washington Nationals didn't exist yet. They were the Montreal Expos, then. With just this one playoff appearance to their name, the Nationals/Expos are easily baseball's model of futility over the last 40 years. In 2012, though, the Nats are finally in position to change all of that.
Behind the arms of Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman along with the bats of Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond, the Nationals are tearing apart the NL. The Nats are 5th in home runs and 7th in hits in the National League. Even more impressive is their pitching staff, which leads the senior circuit in ERA and quality starts and is third in strikeouts. The team is anchored by one player, however: star fireballer Stephen Strasburg. In the NL, Strasburg is 9th in WHIP (1.13), 8th in ERA (2.97), and holds the lead in strikeouts (160). With this young arm as their ace, the Nationals ought to cruise to the NL East title and possibly to their first NL pennant. Well, they would, if not for the "catch" that comes with Strasburg: his innings limit.
Strasburg started out as a highly touted prospect in the Nationals' farm system in 2009 and 2010. He was drafted first overall in 2009 and created a lot of buzz when he held out until the signing deadline for what ended up being the biggest rookie contract every crafted. Strasburg's triple-digit power comes as a result of his well-documented violent pitching mechanics. The stress he put on his elbow and shoulder with this delivery made Strasburg an injury time bomb. The bomb finally went off on August 21, 2010, when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament. The injury was devastating and required repair with Tommy John surgery. As if the 12 to 18 months of rehab wasn't tough enough for a pitcher who was expected to make an immediate impact, many pitchers never have the same stuff after they come back from such a surgery. Additionally, there is always a distinct possibility of re-injury. So in order to protect the franchise's investment, manager Davey Johnson and Nationals management set a limit for Strasburg: once he had pitched 160 innings in 2012, he would be shut down for the year. No ifs, ands, or buts.
As of August 6, Strasburg has thrown 127 1/3 stellar innings. At an average of a little over 5 2/3 innings per start, Strasburg will be able to make only 5 or 6 more starts before he reaches his limit. This means that despite all of Johnson's efforts to keep Strasburg's innings down and barring a string of meltdowns, he will be deactivated no later than mid-September. On top of this, the Nationals made zero (0) moves before the trade deadline and did not bring in a veteran pitcher to replace Strasburg once he reaches this limit. Even the most optimistic Nationals fan couldn't have predicted the way this year has gone, though. That limit was set before it was clear the Nationals would be such a clear contender. In the often-stacked NL East, the Nats may not get this chance again for
another 30 years, so shouldn't Johnson be willing to do everything in his power to make sure Washington does as much as it can with this opportunity? Strasburg is this team's X-factor. With him, they have a rotation that demands respect, even in the playoffs. Without him, they have only one time-tested pitcher (Gio Gonzalez), which is not enough to feel confident going against the likes of Johnny Cueto, Clayton Kershaw, and Matt Cain.
On the other side, though, asking Strasburg to throw 180+ innings increases his likelihood of injury. If he were to suffer another elbow injury, he could be out for even longer than last time. Even then, it's not certain that he would ever be able to come back as the same pitcher. Strasburg was a huge investment and the franchise expects him to be their ace for the next 10 years. Admittedly, playing for multiple division/league/world titles in the future is sexier than playing for just one year and none of that is possible without Strasburg.
So what are the Nationals to do? Shutting down Strasburg at such a critical point sends a big message to the fans. The Nationals have struggled to gain favor ever since their move to Washington, but now they finally have the team to get a large group of people on the wagon. By deactivating Strasburg, the Nationals, in essence, remove themselves from the pennant race. Fans will interpret this as foolish, as they realize the team may never get another chance to accomplish what they could pull off this season despite the fact that the management clearly has the best interest of the team in mind. Those fans will become disenchanted with the franchise and will become reluctant to trust it in the future. However, an injured Strasburg might cause the team to plunge back into the cellar, undoing all the good work that has been done this year.
The 2012 Nationals have caught lightning in a bottle and their success in the home stretch and into the playoffs rests on the right arm of Stephen Strasburg. The bottom line: If they deactivate him, they are left wondering
what could have been in the summer of 2012. If they keep him active and
he gets hurt, they could be left wondering what could have been in the
summers of 2012-2020. In my opinion, the smart choice is clear. Shut him down this year, dominate the NL for the next decade.
