Will the Packers win it all?

You know, Jordan, if you were a betting man, I know you’d jump on the Packers bandwagon.  They’re sitting pretty as the 9-5 favorite to win the Super Bowl.  But this team is not as good as advertised.  Here’s 4 good reasons why the Cheeseheads will not win it all:

1. The Packers have the worst defense in the NFL.  During their championship season last year, the Packers had the 5^th-best defense.  This year, they’re 32^nd.  They’re allowing over 400 yards per game, and have managed to squeak by good opponent thanks only to the brilliant play of Aaron Rodgers.  The superstar play of their quarterback and the arrogance that accompanies a 15-1 record have overshadowed the Achilles heel of this team.  Come playoff time, something’s got to give.  

2. That porous defense has not even been tested during the regular season.  Here’s an interesting fact: the Packers only played five teams with a winning record this year.  They have surrendered all of those points and yards to the likes of Christian Ponder, Kyle Orton and Josh Freeman.  How will this defense respond when they face Eli Manning or Drew Brees in the upcoming weeks?  The secondary has feasted off interceptions throughout the season, but these veteran quarterbacks know how to take care of the ball.  Yes, the Packers have already defeated both the Giants and Saints this year; but it’s always harder to win the second time around.  Ironically, Losing is incredibly valuable.  Look at how Alabama rebounded to pummel LSU.

3. The running game will be important.  The cold, icy weather at Lambeau favors teams that can run the ball effectively.  While Rodgers has been fantastic, his role may be diminished if the snow makes it difficult to throw.  A huge winter storm is set to hammer the Midwest, and I’d take Frank Gore or the Bradshaw/Jacobs tandem over Ryan Grant and James Starks.  Amidst the flurries, they’re going to run it right up the Packers throat.

4. Tragedies can deflate a team.  Just a few days ago, the body of Michael Philbin, the son of Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, was found in a river.  Such a sudden, tragic event has undoubtedly shaken the locker room, and I cannot imagine how the coordinator of one of the league’s top offenses will be emotionally or mentally ready on game day.   Just a few months ago, we all saw what happened to Oklahoma State after a plane crash killed two basketball coaches beloved by the athletic program.  Bedlam and Lambeau are following parallel narratives.

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Well Nick, you know me, but clearly you know me a lot better than you know football. While I think the Packers have some glaring issues on defense, they finished 15-1 for a reason. They proved themselves to be the best team in the NFL’s regular season and I believe this will also be the case in the postseason. I consider only 5 of the remaining 7 teams to be true threats, and here is why the Packers will undoubtedly beat each one.

New York Giants – The Packers already beat the Giants this year at the Meadowlands. Now Green Bay is at home. If the effectiveness of the running games is a factor, the Giants statistically have the least effective running attack in the NFL, averaging 89 yards a game. Eli’s not on the same roll he was on in 2007, and I think his playoff heroics fall short.

San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers are a true wild card. They don’t seem to have any real offensive weapons other than Frank Gore and Vernon Davis and yet they managed 13 wins this year. While San Francisco’s run defense is the best in the league, their pass defense is middle of the pack, and I think Rodgers would bowl right over them.

New England Patriots – Brady can equal Rodgers throw for throw, but the Packers’ secondary has managed 8 more interceptions this season than the Patriots’ secondary. Considering Brady has thrown 12 interceptions to Rodgers’ 6, I think the Packers win this matchup because their defense will provide Rodgers with more possessions than Brady.

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens would definitely be the best all around defense the Packers would face. They also have a much better running game than the Packers. If the Ravens don’t establish a dominant running attack, though, they will fall behind early and Flacco, who completes less than 60% of his passes, will be forced to throw. The Ravens will not win a shootout with the Green Bay Packers.

New Orleans Saints – I think this team poses the greatest threat to the Packers. Drew Brees has proven himself to be just as good as Rodgers, if not better. The Saints have a slightly better defense, but the x-factor will be location. The game between these two teams would be played in Green Bay, where the Packers have already beaten the Saints. I think Drew Brees falters in the cold and the Packers win yet another shootout with the Saints.